Bitcoin (BTC USD) declined 2.4% to $76,514 on Tuesday, 3 November, while Americans cast early ballots in the midterm elections. The United States attacked Iran last night, with a fighter jet destroying an Iranian missile launcher on Qeshm Island. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $398.6 million loss on Monday.
The strike barely moved the chart. Bitcoin traded between $76,541 and $77,314 in the four hours after the news reached Asian markets, while Brent crude rose 0.5% to $105.25.
The selling came earlier, during US hours on Monday, when BlackRock’s IBIT alone lost $405.3 million, its biggest daily outflow since the summer.
The vote is the bigger question. Prediction markets give Democrats about a 94% chance of taking the House, which would put crypto bills that never passed this Congress further out of reach. And Bitcoin has ended the fourth quarter lower in each of the last three midterm years.
Tomorrow could trigger the stock market's biggest rally
President Trump could become the 8th president in history to lose both the House and Senate to Democrats
What happened to the S&P after, on average:
• 1 month later: +2.1% (6 of 7 times positive)
• 3 months later:… pic.twitter.com/7j2I6GInhb
— Michael Burry Stock Tracker
(@burrytracker) November 2, 2026
The price is now resting on supports that have held since August, with trading volume low. So is the midterm dip a trap, or the last chance to buy before the usual post-election rally?
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What Happened With Iran, and Why Did BTC USD Shrug?
A small strike, kept small on purpose. On Monday night, an Iranian surface-to-air missile downed a US drone east of the Strait of Hormuz, US officials told reporters, and a US jet then hit the launcher on Qeshm Island in what an official called “self-defence.” The US has carried out a series of such strikes in recent weeks, The Wall Street Journal reported, kept quiet so as not to signal a return to the full campaign that began on February 28.
President Trump played it down. “I don’t know if you even call it a war because we haven’t been doing any fighting for months,” he said, and when asked whether he planned strikes after the midterms, he answered “no.”
The market took him at his word:
- Oil: Brent rose 0.5% to $105.25 in early Asian trade, a fraction of last week’s swings
- Bitcoin: the 4-hour candle that opened at midnight UTC moved less than 1% and closed slightly higher
- Volume: 3,145 BTC traded on Binance in that candle, a normal session, nothing like the 10,496 BTC in the four hours after the Binance hack
War headlines have mattered more for Bitcoin through oil. Brent above $100 keeps inflation high, and with PCE inflation at 3.6%, CME futures now lean toward a Fed rate hike in December, not a cut. A strike that doesn’t move oil doesn’t move that.
What Could the Midterms Mean for BTC USD?
A Democratic House, mostly priced in. Trump has already said that if they do, “I guess I’ll become Mr Veto.”
For crypto, that means gridlock. The industry has spent about $176 million on more than 100 races this cycle, but any new crypto law after January would need both parties, and the White House would be left with executive orders and regulators’ guidance.
The calendar is the other worry. In each of the last three midterm years, Bitcoin ended the fourth quarter lower:
- 2014: -17.3%
- 2018: -43.5%
- 2022: -14.8%
This quarter it is down 6.4% so far, after its weakest October since 2014. All three earlier years were bear markets, though, and the same years also mark the turn: Bitcoin was higher 12 months after each of those three elections.
“Usually the Q4 dump of midterm years just provide opportunities to buy for those who sold long ago,” analyst Benjamin Cowen said.
The result itself may matter less than its timing. Results land in the same week as Friday’s jobs report, and a surprise Republican hold on the House is the one outcome markets haven’t priced.
Who Is Selling BTC USD: ETFs or Traders?
The ETFs, mostly. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now lost money for two straight sessions:
- Friday, October 30: -$643.3 million, the most since June 25, led by IBIT (-$233.7 million) and Fidelity’s FBTC (-$201.4 million)
- Monday, November 2: -$398.6 million, almost all of it from IBIT (-$405.3 million), with FBTC taking in $6.7 million and every other fund flat
That is $1.04 billion out in two days. The funds started Friday with just over $1 billion of net inflows for 2026, so the year is now roughly flat, and total assets have slipped below $100 billion to about $98 billion.
Spot traders are not adding to it. Binance’s BTCUSDT market averaged $1.16 billion a day in October, and only three days came near double that: October 2 and the two days of the Binance hack.
Monday’s slide came on $0.98 billion, below average, after a weekend of about $0.5 billion a day. Weekly volume tells the same story: $8.1 billion last week, in line with the $7.3 billion to $9.4 billion of most weeks since September, against $12.2 billion in the August breakout week.
Low volume on a slide means sellers aren’t panicking, but it also means no one is stepping in. Until ETF flows turn, the bid has to come from somewhere else.
BTC USD Price Analysis: What Do the Weekly and 4-Hour Charts Say?
Both point to the same line: $76,300 to $76,500. BTC trades at $76,514 on Binance, 39% below its $126,080 record from October 2025.
The Weekly Chart: A Range Losing Its Top
Since the August breakout, Bitcoin has traded between $74,968 and $87,396. Inside that range, the trend has turned:
- Four lower weekly closes in a row: from $86,530 to $83,773, $82,116, $80,154 and $78,354 last week
- 50-week EMA: $78,497, lost in the hack week and not reclaimed
- 20-week EMA: $76,840, which BTC is trading just under this week
A weekly close back above $78,497 would keep the range intact. A close below $74,968 would end it, and the next real support on this chart is the summer base around $62,300, where Bitcoin spent most of June to mid-August.
The 4-Hour Chart: A Floor Under Lower Highs
The short-term picture is tighter. Bitcoin has bottomed at $76,326 to $76,389 twice, on October 30 and on Tuesday, and every bounce has topped out lower, from $81,971 before the hack to $78,878 on Monday.
- 4H 50 EMA: $78,673, just under Monday’s high and capping each bounce
- 4H 200 EMA: $80,643, with the 50 below it since late October
- Floor: $76,326, the October 30 low, tested again on Tuesday at $76,389
A flat floor under falling highs is a descending triangle, which usually breaks down. Its height, about $2,550, points to $73,800 if the floor gives way.
| Path | What has to happen | Next stop |
|---|---|---|
| Push higher | A 4-hour close above $78,878 | $80,643, the 4H 200 EMA, then $81,971 |
| Stall | Holding between $76,326 and $78,878 | More range trade while the midterm count comes in and ETF flows decide the direction |
| Slip | A 4-hour close below $76,326 | $74,968, the September low, then $73,800 |
For BTC USD, the war headlines are noise for now. The ETF outflows and the $76,326 floor are the signal, and a close below it would turn the midterm dip into a breakdown.
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The post BTC USD Slides to $76,500 as America Votes and the US Strikes Iran Again: Is the Midterm Dip a Trap or a Buy? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
