Bitcoin (BTC USD) is holding near $81,700 on Friday, October 23, after CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said retail traders have left Bitcoin futures markets. It’s the reverse of what his data showed at the 2025 top, after U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $1 billion in three days. The price has lost $3,000 since Wednesday’s high. The buyers haven’t left.
The Bitcoin price is down 0.2% in 24 hours and 0.6% in a week. So does a quieter futures market point to a bottom, and which levels matter for BTC USD now?
Retail traders are gone from BTC futures markets, the exact opposite of what we saw at the top. https://t.co/7cdtVHsVgG pic.twitter.com/3O4lmbOfSd
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) October 22, 2026
BTC USD: Why Does It Matter That Retail Left Futures?
Because crowded markets tend to top. CryptoQuant’s chart sorts futures trades by average order size. Through the summer of 2025, with BTC between $110,000 and $120,000 ahead of its October record, small retail orders dominated almost every day. Retail kept leading as the price slid into January.
The picture is now reversed. Since May, no stretch has been led by retail. Large whale orders marked the July low near $58,000, and mid-sized whale orders drove the rally to $87,000 in September. October is mostly neutral, with whales still active.
That doesn’t mean the bottom is in. Retail also dominated from February to April 2026, when BTC was trading between $63,000 and $75,000, and BTC still fell to $58,000 by July. What it shows is that this market is less crowded with leveraged small traders, so there are fewer of them to liquidate on a drop.
Spot money agrees. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $1.07 billion from Monday to Wednesday, enough to turn October’s flows positive.
DISCOVER: Bitcoin ETFs Turn October Positive With $1 Billion in Three Days While ETH Funds Bleed $1 Billion
Are Bitcoin ETFs Still Buying?
Yes, and in size. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $526.7 million on Monday, $23.2 million on Tuesday and $524.8 million on Wednesday, about $1.07 billion in three sessions. That was enough to turn October’s flows positive.
BlackRock’s IBIT led again, with $235 million on Wednesday alone. Ethereum funds went the other way and kept bleeding money.
Put the two together, and the selling this week looks like short-term traders, not long-term money heading for the exit. ETF inflows of this size have come before past rallies.
DISCOVER: Bitcoin ETFs Turn October Positive With $1 Billion in Three Days While ETH Funds Bleed $1 Billion
BTC USD Price Analysis: Will $79,800 Hold?
BTC is back inside the range it has traded in since October 10, between roughly $79,800 and $84,300. Wednesday’s push to $84,898 above the top failed within a day.
The short-term damage is a broken trendline. Thursday’s drop cut through the rising line that had held every dip since the October 15 low, and BTC is now retesting it from below near $82,000.
Update: Still alive. Bitcoin doing a little bearish retest of trendline here and we can continue down to Seppuko land. https://t.co/KaNIrsKPE8 pic.twitter.com/iIObZMGEMt
— VikingXBT (@VikingXBT) October 23, 2026
Overhead, $82,000 to $82,850 is the first wall: the trendline, the swing highs and the 4-hour moving averages. A reclaim would put $84,300 back in play.
Below, $80,876 is the 50-day EMA, and $79,800, the October 15 low, is the floor of the whole range. A quick sweep under $79,800 that reverses would be a classic shakeout and the cleanest setup for a bounce. A daily close under it would point to the 200-day EMA near $76,200.
EXPLORE: J.P. Morgan Projects 10% a Year for Bitcoin: The Bank’s Own Bear Case Points to $25,000
One More Thing: Does the McRib Move Bitcoin?
Crypto Twitter has a less scientific indicator for Bitcoin. McDonald’s is bringing the McRib back “as early as 10/27,” and trader internbrah reminded more than 400,000 viewers that:
BTC historically goes up >2x after the McRib returns. Don’t fade the McRib.
The McRib is back on 10/27. BTC historically goes up >2x after the McRib returns. Don't fade the McRib.
Not financial advice. pic.twitter.com/RxBuzcVht5
— internbrah (@internbrah) October 22, 2026
We checked. Of the last seven McRib returns, BTC more than doubled within a year after two, in December 2020 and November 2023. After the November 2021 return, it topped out nine days later and lost two-thirds of its value. After the November 2025 return, it never traded higher.
| McRib return | BTC price | Best gain within 12 months |
|---|---|---|
| October 2019 | $8,246 | +49% |
| December 2020 | $19,201 | +252% |
| November 2021 | $61,004 | +11%, then −67% |
| October 2022 | $20,496 | +68% |
| November 2023 | $35,437 | +106% |
| December 2024 | $96,675 | +29% |
| November 2025 | $102,997 | none |
So the McRib is two for seven on doubling, which is about what you’d expect from a sandwich. For BTC USD, $79,800 still matters more than the menu.
EXPLORE: Best Crypto Presales With Asymmetric Upside in the Current Market
The post Retail Traders Have Left Bitcoin Futures: Can BTC USD Sweep $80,000 and Bounce? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
Source: https://99bitcoins.com/news/bitcoin-btc/btc-usd-retail-futures-etf-flows/
